Wow! The tech world has been all aflutter about the announcement that Google is releasing an Operating System to run on netbook (at least initially) computers. Bloggers and Tweeters are salivating at the chance to knock "the man" (Microsoft) down a peg by waving goodbye to much-maligned Windows in favor of an open-source alternative. On the surface, this sounds like an incredible thing. A freely available, open source Operating System with the trademarks of Google (simplicity and web 2.0 savvy - plus the afore-mentioned freeness!) stamped all over it. So incredible, in fact, that it sounds too good to be true.
I think that it probably is. While I won't go as far as to predict outright failure of the OS, I do think that consumers will end up paying more than they realize for this new-world computing vision. If Google is eventually successful in unseating the evil Microsoft empire, we may find that we've simply replaced an emperor with a czar.
Allow me to do a poor impression of Robert Cringley for a moment. I'll do my best to piece together what I've observed in the past few months into a somewhat less-than-obvious vision of the Google future. In 2010 Google's Chrome OS will begin showing up in netbooks. It will be lightweight, taking the "the browser is the OS" mantra very literally. Antivirus, anti-malware, anti-spam will all be contained within the Google cloud, as hinted at by this comment in the Google blog post: "users don't have to deal with viruses, malware and security updates". The only way Google can guarantee this is by housing it within their data center walls, similarly to how they control all of their service offerings. Google will of course allow full-fledged browser access to any Internet site but will most likely include links or gadgets to their own service offerings as a convenience to users and a benefit to themselves, thus grabbing more market share for services with every free copy of Chrome OS distributed into the population.
Once users are slowly moved off of desktop apps into cloud services, Google will begin to charge for their once-free cloud services. That's right. Gmail, Apps, Voice, everything we have integrated into our lifestyles and feel that we can't live or do business without. They may not start charging for everything at once - after all, it's Google's style to do a little bit here and a little bit there, but rest assured, once we are hooked there will be a movement towards charging for services. Why do I think Google would start to "do evil" by the little guy? Here's 5 reasons I came up with:
2. There's no money in open source. Two of the most well known open-source projects, OpenOffice.org and Mozilla Firefox could be in dire straits shortly simply because there's no good way to make money by giving stuff away. OpenOffice's future is shaky due to the Oracle purchase, and Firefox probably wouldn't even exist if it weren't for that little Google search box in the corner. Side note: Do you ever wonder what would happen to Firefox if Google Chrome had the market share that IE does?
3. There is money in recurring monthly service charges...lots of it. Just ask Verizon, DirecTV, AT&T, or Comcast. There's even more money in confusing bundles of recurring monthly service charges. Imagine paying a $20/month fee to use a bundle that included Gmail, Docs, Blogger, Webmasters, Voice and Wave. Of course, Chrome and Chrome OS would continue to be free ("subsidized" by Google much like cell phones by telco companies). Is $240 a year a good deal? Maybe, if you feel your lifestyle requires them. But, what it essentially means is that instead of paying a one-time fee of $120 for Windows 7 Home Premium (which should last you about 3 years), you're paying $720 over 3 years for the privilage to download Chrome OS. Makes Microsoft's purported old-world business model sound somewhat enticing, doesn't it?
4. Google needs to do their best to look anti-competitive to keep the Department of Justice off their backs. Continuing to give away free services in order to undercut other service providers (you know, those without the advertising revenue that Google currently relies on) just looks bad when you're coming under increasing scrutiny for anti-competitive practices.
5. They're starting to move in this direction already. To summarize, when Google recently announced the removal of their "beta" tag from Gmail and Google Apps, they also very quietly de-emphasized the free version of apps in favor of a free trial for the premium version. Don't underestimate the significance of this subtle move. It's a hint of a philosophical shift from those who claim they "Do no evil".
What does all this mean? Possibly nothing. I really hope that I'm wrong about all of the above and that the world of Web 2.0 and beyond is simpler, free of cost, free of viruses, and more open from a technical and collaborative standpoint. My fear, however, is that the consumer will eventually end up paying for all of this "freedom", potentially even more than we do now.
Got an idea for a topic? E-mail me at toptoad@techonadime.net.

